4 SOCIAL SCIENTIST crisis to the developing countries, thereby accentuating the crisis which these economies arc already going through. Economic Survey 1980-81 The Economic Survey for 1980-81 presented by the Finance Minister of the Government of India provides a wealth of data which clearly reveals the magnitude of the deepening crisis of the economy despite the official claims that the economy is definitely on the path of recovery. The year 1979-80 witnessed one of the wol-st economic performances in the post-independence period—a negative growth in industrial production of 1.4 percent over the previous year, an absolute fall of 15.5 percent in agricultural production, an acceleration in the rate of inflation and the beginning of a serious balance of payments crisis which can no longer be tided over by the inflow of foreign remittances. In the context of this dismal performance, the performance in 1980-81 docs not provide any basis whatsoever for the optimism and complacency displayed by the Finance Minister. The exception is agricultural production which however is only expected to reach the peak levels attained in 1978-79. Regarding industrial production, the latest official data, relating to April-November 1980, show a mere 1.2 percent growth over the corresponding period of 1979 which points towards continuing stagnation in output. Moreover, there are no clear indications of an abatement in the rate of inflation. The wholesale price index rose by 21.4 percent in 1979-80. In the succeeding year, the data, which relate to April 1980-January 1981, show a further 13.2 percent rise over the previous year, a staggering 34.6 percent hike in 22 months. Retail prices have also started rising from January 1981 onwards and arc likely to get a further fillip on account of the increases in coal, steel prices and freight rates announced by the government. There is thus a persistent inflationary bias in the economy. Furthermore, the balance of payments crisis appears to be worsening. Imports arc likely to be around Rs 113,000 millions and exports are expected to be roughly Rs 71,000 millions v^hich implies a widening trade deficit ofRs 40,000 millions, compared to Rs 20,680 millions in 1979-80. Tim deficit cannot any more be financed through remittances from abroad or other invisible receipts which have stagnated. It would finally result in a massive current account deficit of Rs 20,000 millions.. Despite borrowings of Rs 8150 millions from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a substantial depletion of foreign cxchange^rcserves of about Rs 6000 millions is expected.