12 SOCIAL SCIENTIST
It is interesting to cornpare this with the physical targets and actual achievements. The First Plan had a target of 1.3 million KW, the Second 3.5 million KW, the Third 7.04 million KW, the three annual plans 5.43 million KW, the Fourth Plan 9.26 million KW and the period 1974-1979, 12.50 million KW. The percentage shortfalls have been 15, 35, 24, 50 and 18 respectively. If we carefully examine these figures we would find that the shortfall of the Fourth Plan can largely be attributed to the inadequate capital outlay. With an outlay of Rs. 1,817 crores, which was 27.43 per cent of the Plan outlay, we tried to add 5.43 million KW in the three annual plans, but in the Fourth Plan, with Rs. 2,523 crores or only 16 per cent of the total plan outlay, we tried to add 9.26 million KW; it is not surprising that there was a 50 per cent shortfall in the target being achieved.
The committee on power, better known as the Rajadhyaksha Committee, has estimated the capital requirement in the power sector at between Rs. 120,000 crores and Rs. 154,000 crores over a period of 10 years at the current price, i.e., on an average Rs. 13,000 crores per year.
In physical terms, the working group on energy (N B Prasad Committee) has given the targets of 42 million KW, 60 million KW, 84 million KW and 128 million KW for the years 1982-83, 1987-88, 1992-93, 2000-01 respectively, ie, a growth of about 5,000 MW per year, which is about the annual capacity of BHEL. To get this amount of power, for the thermal component, we would have to increase the coal output from 100 million tonnes to around 500 million tonnes by the year 2000 in order to provide the 200 million tonnes for the 75 million KW of thermal power. In addition, investments would have to be made in the railway infrastructure and civil works for the hydro power.
The question that follows is: Where is the money to come from? The funding of the power industry is largely from the state plan outlays. Borrowings of the state electricity boards from the state governments, as a percentage of total capital employed, increased from 80.5 in 1974-75 to 83.8 in 1978-79. Broadly speaking, there are three types of electricity boards insofar as financial working is concerned. First, there are boards which cannot meet even operational, maintenance and depreciation charges. Second, there are boards which are able to meet operational and maintenance charges as well as depreciation but not interest. A majority of the boards are in this category. The third consists of those that are able to meet all the charges. There are hardly any boards which have a surplus after meeting all these charges.
To get an idea of the financial crisis let me quote a few figures. The contingent interest liability at the end of 1977-78 for all boards was around Rs. 1,000 crores, with U P exceeding over Rs. 200 crores. The Venkafaraman Committee (with R Venkataraman, the then