Social Scientist. v 12, no. 139 (Dec 1984) p. 58.


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58 SOCIAL SCIENTIST

Seventh Plan, then there is even less reason for expecting a high rate of growth in industrial production.

According to the Approach paper, industrial growth rates have been affected because of infrastructural bottlenecks. Hence, what is needed is greater investments in items such as steel, cement, coal etc. The pure ad hocism of this approach becomes apparent, when it is realised that whenever production of any of these items shoots up from a situation of relative shortage, it invariably culminates in greater inventory accumulation. That is, the overall crisis of Indian industry is so deep, that there is a crisis when steel production is low, and there is a crisis of a different ordei when steel production is high. A sustained increase in overall industrial p1 eduction cannot come through the kind of ad hocism envisaged in the Approach paper. It requires structural changes, about which the planners remain quiet.

On the question of balance of payments, the Approach paper seems to betray a lack of seriousness about the possibilities of India getting enmeshed in a severe debt problem in the new international setting.

On the one hand, the Approach paper mentions that "the Seventh Plan has to take into account the prospect of considerably diminished inflow of concessional financial assistance from abroad, sizeable debt servicing obligation, and a global environment where interest rates are expected to remain high with only limited possibilities of any sharp acceleration in the volume of export growth". Hence the importance of import-substitution is emphasised. However, in dealing with the technology policy, the Approach paper argues for the necessity of liberal technology imports in order to increase the efficiency of Indian industry. It is usually the case that the imports of technology through multinationals ^carries with it obligations for imports of equipment also. As to how the planners are going to reconcile the apparently contradictory objective of "import substitution9' and ^technology liberalisation" is not clear at all.

In short, there seems to be no cogent strategy in the Approach to. the Seventh Five Year Plan for reviving the economy from its crisis ridden state. Options and policies which go against the vested interests in the country will not even be considered.

R RAMANA

St. Stephen's College, Delhi.



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