1§ SOCIAL scifiNtiat
1897-1907) which grew at a trend rate of 0.11 per cent per annum. In all regions of British India an accelerating population growth from after World War I, outstripped this low rate of foodgrains production growth, leading to a decline in per capita production (and availability), the maximum decline being experienced by the Eastern region, while even the most dynamic and growing region, Punjab, experienced a decline after 1920.
These estimates have been sought to be challenged by Heston (1982) whose views have found a prominent place in the Cambridge Economic History of India. Hfeston's methodology however has been subjected to sharp criticism by Habib (1985) and others since he assumes that yield per acre remained constant during the period 1857-1947, giving in justification M. Mukherji's "charmingly illogical" and super-nationalist view that'. .It is somewhat difficult to believe in a continually declining sequence of per capita real income in as large, as varied and as great a country as India'. (p. 404)
Heston's estimates are not considered therefore to pose any serious challenge to the BIyn-Sivasubramanian results. The estimated decline in per capita foodgrains production by about a third from the peak reached before World War I, is also consistent with such information we have on the increasing incidence of rural wage labour and increasing social differentiation.2
During the four decades of Independence, India has roughly trebled total foodgrains output from around 50 m. tons in 1951 to 150 m tons by 1983-84, a level which has not been exceeded to date. This is a qualitative break from the pre-Independence trend of stagnation : in this sense the achievement has been considerable. In terms of per capita production however, the picture is disappointing in that the back log of decline has not been made up. Per capita availability of cereals during the last quinquennium for which data are available, 1981 to 1985, is only 17.6 per cent higher than during 1951 to 1955 while availability of foodgrains is only 9.9 more. We are thus not even as yet, at the same level as at the end of World War I. The per capita production and availability of pulses has been declining, as is well known; when added on to cereals to give the total foodgrains we find near-constancy between 1961-65 and 1981-85 at around 166 to 168 kg. per capita, with a dip to around 156 kg in the mid-seventies. Thus, not only has per capita foodgrains availability registered disappointingly small improvement; its nutritional balance has worsened with a fairly sharp fall in the intake of pulses, the main source of protein for the rural poor. (Table 1)
It is interesting to note that while per capita cereals production has registered a distinct rise during the decade 1976-1985 over previous levels, for the first time since Independence per capita availability is actually lower than per capita production, the difference being accounted for mainly by increased addition to Government stocks (while exports have also been a small positive amount). This can be inferred to be basically an outcome of increased skewness in the distribution of sales, a larger proportion now