34 SOCIAL SCIENTIST
the abstract level, one can visualise two polar scenarios. In one scenario which leads to inequitable growth, the final consumption is located away from wage income and into the non-wage income of the upper strata, de Janvry and Sadoulet (1983) have convincingly shown that if the consumption patterns of the upper income strata are different from those of the lower strata and key sectors of growth depend on the market of the upper strata, there exists a threshold of income inequality beyond which social 'disarticulation' sets in and growth becomes inequalising. In such a scenario, two growth trajectories may co-exist: a dynamic trajectory associated with profits, exports, etc. producing luxuries, and another, a slow growing trajectory associated with labour-intensive techniques and whose market depends on the wage income. On the other hand, equitable growth occurs if the distribution of income is within the threshold of inequality which ensures the participation of workers' wage income in generating demand for the key dynamic sectors of the economy, and reciprocally, the choice of the key sectors is such that a major part of their market is located in workers* wage income. In such a scenario the second trajectory discussed above becomes dominant. It is the combination of level and distribution of income that defines whether the key sectors produce luxury items only and hence whether the economy is socially disarticulated or not.
Knowledge of the inter-temporal changes in income distribution is critical for the projection of the economic scenario at the turn of the century. Unfortunately we do not have time series data on income distribution. However, many experts feel that indirect evidence suggests widening inequalities in the distribution of income in India over time. In this paper we assume that structural conditions which lead to equitable growth are absent in India. At the same time, public intervention through welfare schemes will place a limit on inequality in the short run and the social disarticulation process will be blunted for some to come.
POINTS OF CONCERN
The population of India which has been estimated to be 846 million in 1990 is projected to reach 1,016 million by 2000.2 In other words, 170 million will be added to the population in the decade of the 90s. There has been an acceleration in the growth of population during the first three decades of planning in India: the rate of growth rose from 1.98 per cent p.a. in the 1950s to 2.24 per cent p.a. in the 1960s, and further to 2.26 per cent p.a. in the 1970s. The rate of growth in the 1980s is estimated to be 2.10 per cent p.a. and it was projected to be 1.85 per cent p.a. in the 1990s. The population has been growing at a high rate despite a fall in the birth rate from 41.7 in the 1950s to 37.2 in the 1970s as a result of the simultaneous fall in the death rate from 22.8 to 15.0 in the above period.