GROWTH SCENARIO FOR INDIA IN 2000 35 Population growth expands food needs, contributes to labour supply aggravating the unemployment problem and creates its own demand for diverse social facilities. Measured by the existing per capita intake of foodgrains of 516 grams per day, this growing population will require an additional 4.1 million tonnes of foodgrains per year and, if the increased demand due to growth of per capita income is added, it will require 5.4 million tonnes of foodgrains per year. The issue is whether the productivity of land in use can be improved to meet the extra food requirements. The post-Green Revolution growth in agricultural production has come from expanded use of three critical inputs: 12 per cent annual growth in the area under improved varieties, 10 per cent in the consumption of chemical fertilisers, and about 1.24 million hectares of annual additions to irrigated areas. The crucial question is the cost of increasing the critical inputs required for further increase in productivity. A bare 25.88 per cent of the population in 1986-87 is estimated to be urban while the rest is rural. The projection is that the urban population will increase to 32 per cent by 2000 and 37 per cent by 2010. This implies that, out of the 170 million addition to the population in the 1990s, slightly more than 96 million will be in the urban areas. Undoubtedly this will exert pressure on the urban infrastructure. The growth of population also results in an expansion of labour supply. The growth rate of the working age population, which is historically higher than that of the population, would have a positive effect on the labour force participation rate. On the other hand, urbanisation and increase in number of persons in the 15-25 age group attending school/college would exert a negative pressure on the labour force participation rate. On balance, it is quite possible that the labour force participation rate would remain at 35.53 per cent estimated for 1983. Based on this figure, it can be seen that the projected extra 170 million population will increase the labour supply by 60 million persons in the 1990s. Given that the underemployment rate is constant at 8 per cent of the labour force, it implies that 24 million persons are unemployed in 1990. Hence, if the objective of full employment is to be achieved, additional employment of the order of 84 million has to be generated by 2000. Another pressing concern is the growing size of the unemployed skilled manpower. An important feature of the Indian plans right from the beginning has been the exclusive attention paid to higher education, technical training, etc. Owing to the slow growth of the economy, the supply of trained manpower has outstripped the demand. The problem of underutilisation of this asset may remain even in the 1990s. Moreover, the emerging contradiction is that while high-tech industrialisation increases the demand for skilled manpower, it aggravates the overall unemployment. On the other hand, labour-intensive industrialisation will produce contrary effects.