Social Scientist. v 18, no. 204 (May 1990) p. 32.


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32 SOCIAL SCIENTIST

terms of the structure of the economy, the following trends are immediately discernible: In real terms, the share of agriculture in the GNP fell from 21.6% to 9.2% over the three Five Year Plans (1962-77). There was no change in the share of the non-oil industrial sector, while the share of the oil sector in GNP increased from 12.3% to 34.7%. In this period, the share of consumer goods imports to the total imports of Iran fell from 24.1% to 18.6% while that of capital goods increased from 20.3% to 27.2%. There was no change in the share of intermediate goods imports.

These tendencies are considered in more detail in the following section. At this stage it is important to note that they were part of an overall process which has tended to be repeated in a number of developing countries undertaking ISI. As the industrialization based upon ISI proceeded, the new industrial organisation tended to rely on capital intensive technologies and the import of components for assembling industries. The heavy reliance on modem technologies remained alien to the prior domestically-oriented economy, which remained dominated by traditional and largely low productivity methods of production. Thus, the linkages between traditional input suppliers and the enclave modem capital intensive industries, rather than increasing in the process of industrialization, kept on diminishing.6

GENERAL FEATURES OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION INDUSTRIALIZATION IN IRAN

The manufactured sector exhibited a rapid growth over time, with real growth of 10 per cent per annum in 1959-63,13.2% inl963-72 and 15.4% in 1973-77.7 During 1959-77, the manufacturing sector's income elasticity was highest in relation to the growth of both total GDP and non-oil GDP. The 1960s ISI thus created an environment necessary to stimulate an amount of investment needed to make up the ground lost over the years in the past because of the previous import openness which had meant that most manufactured goods requirements were met through imports rather than domestic production. The adoption of the ISI strategy, altogether with the increase in income from oil and the country's political stability, produced high profit expectations, and thus in turn high rates of growth of investment and output in the manufacturing sector. In fact, this sector in Iran grew at a rate twice as fast as the average growth of the manufacturing sector in other developing countries over that period. The result was an average annual growth of gross domestic fixed capital formation at 16 per cent and of fixed investment in plant and machinery of over 20 per cent during the Third and Fourth Five Year Plans. However, with the rapid industri-alisation, the lack of integration between sectors was further enhanced. The modem manufacturing sector developed with minimum linkage affects with the rest of the national economy.

In the period 1962-77, the composition of the labour force, the material production structure and imports changed drastically.8



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