STRUCTURE OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY 41 NOTES 1. See Raul Prebisch, 'Commercial Policy in Underdeveloped Countries', American Economic Review, May 1959, pp 251-271. 2. Commercial Statistics, Minsitry of Economy, Iran, 1966, p.32. 3. See A.O.Hirschman, 'The Political Economy of Import Substitution Industrialization In Latin America', Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol 132 No. 1, February 1968, pp 1-12. 4. The 'trial and error' method was introduced by Jan Tinbergen in his article 'Development Planning' (New York, McGraw Hill, 1967). 5. There are various meanings attached to the term structural change. It may be defined as change in population growth, productivity of various sectors and in demand for different goods. Here, we will emphasize changes in the structure of inputs, production and inter-industry integration. 6. For a detailed discussion of the linkage concept, see A.O. Hirschman, The Strategy of Economic Development, New Haven, Yale University Press, 1968. 7. Bank Markazi, Iran, Annual Reports and Balance Sheets, various issues. 8. See Appendices I and II. 9. E.Charle, Macro Economics of Developing Countries, New Delhi, Hill Publishing Co. Ltd., 1983, p 125. 10. Ministry of Economy, Statistics on Large Industrial Establishments of Iran, 1969, p vii; 1971-72, pp Kh-d. 11. Bank Markazi, Annual Reports, various issues. 12. See Walter Elkan, Iran's Human Resources, London, Focus Research, 1974. 13. According to H.B.Chenery, growth in domestic output depends on the growth of final demand (D), intermediate demand (W), and export demand(E), assuming that a constant proportion of total supply is imported (U^). If there is a change in ratio of domestic production (X) to total supply (Z) because of import substitution, this will be reflected in (U^ - U-[) Z2. Therefore, we get the sources of growth by applying the following formula: X = Ui (D + W) + UiE + (U2 - Ui) Z2. In Table 2, demand expansion covers final, intermediate and export demand. Due to inadequacy of reliable data, it is not possible to distinguish the composition as between those three categories, but Table 3 clarifies that in 1972 the shares of intermediate, final and export demand of manufacturing sector were 19,68 and 2.3% respectively. For details, see H.B.Chenery, 'Pattern of Industrial Growth', American Economic Review, September 1960, pp 624-54. 14. R.Looney, Economic Origin of the Iranian Revolution, New York, Praeger, 1982, p 91. 15. Bank Markazi, Iran, National Income of Iran, 1959-76, Teheran 1979. 16. A.Shahshahani, An Economic Model for Iran, Teheran Institute for Development and Economic Research, 1978, p 49 (in Persian). 17. R.Wilson, Trade and Investment in the Middle East, London, Macmillan, 1977, p. 67. 18. The elasticity of demand for machinery in Iran was estimated to be 1.4 in 1968, but the share of the domestic market for machinery fell from 9.5% to 7.9% during 1960-69. For details see Kunio Miyamoto, UN Industrial Programming Data, Teheran, UN, 1970; and Ministry of Economy, Annual Surveys, Teheran, Bureau of Statistics, 1970, p. 72. 19. R.L.Chawla.'Economic Development of Iran', India Quarterly, April-July 1979, p, 168. 20. Fred Halliday, 'The Coalition against the Shah'/ New Statesman, London, Jan 5, 1979, p. 2. 21. Iranian estimates made in 1966. See United Nations, The Growth of World Industry: General Industrial Statistics, Vol I, New York, 1967, pp 221-2. 22. See World Bank, World Bank Tables, Washington DC 1971-75 and ILO, Yearbook of Labour Statistics, Geneva 1974.