Social Scientist. v 2, no. 20 (March 1974) p. 62.


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62 SOCIAL SCIENTIST

Increasing Dependence on External Sources

The Fourth Five Year Plan ended with increasing dependence on external aid on government and private accounts, although self-reliance was the major objective of the Plan. The Approach Document to the Fifth Plan also reaffirmed the same objective. In fact foreign aid, both gross and net, is mounting. The gross receipts from external sources increased from Rs 661.80 crores in 1973-74 to Rs 849.79 crores in the 1974-75 budget. Receipts, net of repayment, has also increased from Rs 470.27 crores to Rs 552.47 crores. At the existing rate of consumption of oil, India will have to spend over 42 per cent of her export earnings only for importing oil. The total requirement of diesel and kerosene put together will be about 9.5 million tonnes. To produce this, crude oil input must be of the order of 25 million tonnes. Assuming that internal production reaches 8 million tonnes, we still have to import 17 million tonnes which would cost about Rs 1100 crores at the current crude oil prices. In view of the oil crisis, the external aid requirement would be of a greater extent during 1974-75, than forecast in the budget. Conclusion

The budget proposals and the professed objectives of the Plan will not go together. First of all the budget seeks to help the rich while imposing severe penalties on the masses of poor and middle classes. Secondly, the budget places greater reliance on external assistance. Thirdly, there is no sign that the budget will promote either stability or growth of the economy. The budget was expected to relieve,to some extent,those sections of population which have suffered under the inflationary spiral. Over the years the share of wage-earners and middle-class employees in the national income has been declining. For instance, the share of wages and salaries in value added seems to have declined from 65 per cent in 1949 to 53.3 per cent in 1969. As for wages, the corresponding decline has been from 53.3 per cent to 34.9 per cent. At the same time, the index of profit has kept on rising remarkably in this year of economic crisis. According to a Reserve Bank of India study, the real income of the worker has declined from 30.8 per cent in 1965-66 to 29 per cent in 1970-71 while the share of property-owners has increased from 69.2 per cent to 71 per cent during the same period. The decline seems to have been very sharp over the last few years on account of unprecedented inflation. The increase in money wages and dearness allowances secured by the organized labour and middle-class employees could not fully neutralize ihe erosion in their real income. Checking the inflationary spiral is the immediate task, according to the Finance Minister, before the government. The very same government has imposed further burdens on the vulnerable sections of the population. The disappointing factor in the budget proposals is that the Finance Minister has not taken a single step to curb the inflationary spiral in the country. On the contrary, heavy doses of indirect taxes and the railway budget have given an additional push to inflation. The increase in the



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