56 SOCIAL SCIENTIST TABLE I ESTIMATES OF UNEMPLOYED ENGINEERS (DEGREE AND DIPLOMA) / 1955 TO 1968 (in ^OOOs) TOTAL DEGREE DIPLOMA Year Stock Unem- Per- Stock Unem- Per- Stock Unem- Per- ployed cent ployed cent ployed cent 1955 74.0 4.8 6.1 34.0 0.6 1.7 45.0 4.2 9.4 1960 13.3 9.1 6.8 58.0 1.1 1.9 75.0 8.0 10.7 1965 229.3 16.5 7.2 95.5 3.1 3.3 133.8 13.4 10.0 1966 259.9 27.6 10.6 106.6 4.0 3.7 153.3 23.6 15.4 1967 294.4 40.0 13.6 119.0 6.5 5.5 175.4 33.5 19.1 1968 332.0 56.7 17.1 134.0 10.0 7.5 198.0 46.7 23.6 Source : Institute of Applied Manpower Research, Fact Book on Manpower, Part III. Certainly someihing had gone wrong. Either production was more than planned or estimated demand exceeded actual demand. We shall presently look into this. First Plan , The First Plan was more of a budgetary exercise extrapolated for five years rather than a scientifically consistent and integrated plan. Even such an exercise was not there as far as engineering manpower was concerned. It was considered that a consolidation of the then existing training capacities could be sufficient to meet the demands generated during the course of the Plan. Nobody even knew how to calculate engineering manpower requirements. All the same, there was neither shortage nor a sizeable surplus of engineers by the end of the First Plan. In 1955 as seen in Table I, about 6 per cent of the total number of engineers were unemployed. Shortage in specific categories also were reported. Second Plan The original Second Plan document suggested that the annual intake of students for engineering degree course should be raised to 75,550 ^nd for diploma courses to 11,300 in order to meet the demand.1 The Engineering Personnel Committee appointed in September 1955 estimated the total additional demand for the Second Plan as 30,000 degree engineers and 52,000 diploma engineers, and reported that even if the targets of the Second Plan document were realized there would be a large shortage of degree and diploma engineers of all branches—1800 graduates and 8000 diplomas.*^ To meet this demand they suggested the starting of 18 new engineering colleges and 62 new polytechnics with an intake capacity of 2794 and 8221 respectively.3 The Ghosh-Chandrakant Commission, which was appointed to study these recommendations, made ax. estimate of requirements which was slightly lower than that of the Engi-