In a study, for the USA the employment estimates were prepared by means of input-output analysis.12 First, the expenditure on each goal was translated into a bill of goods specifying the purchases (at 1958 prices) from each of the 80-odd industries into which the entire economy was divided. The gross output from each industry that is required to produce tlie goods and services represented by the purchases was estimated and the value added by each industry in the process of producing this gross output was determined. The employment projections for specific goals were then derived from the relationship between value added and employment in these industries in the past decade and the changes anticipated in this relationship because of productivity changes in the next decade.
By itself this analysis provides no indication of the occupational distribution of employment. The projections of manpower requirements by occupation were based on the historical changes in the occupational distribution in each industry between 1950-1964 and on the judgement derived from the available evidence concerning the probable changes in the occupational distribution in the next decade. Occupational distributions have been prepared for individual industries based on 1950 and 1960 decennial census. These distributions indicate the frequency per 1000 people employed with which each of the occupations occur in the industries concerned. The 1950-1960 data is carried forward to 1964 and checked with actuals and again rechecked in 1965.
As far as the Soviet Union is concerned the 'labour plan9 is a part of the national economic plan. It is called upon to '^ensure the full employment of the able-bodied population as well as the manpower needs of the economy."18 It has to ensure the steady and swift growth of labour productivity; increase in the number of people employed in the economy;
extension and improvement of training of skilled personnel; and rise in wages.
We in India, obviously, cannot think of any such comprehensive plan under the present socio-economic set up. Our plans are, by and large? statements of desirable objectives. Plans are only. formulated, and not implemented; the experience of four five year plans and three annual plans has amply proved this. The activities of a hundred and odd profit oriented industrial houses are not amenable to any sort of mathematical analysis. To elaborate a labour plan based on such an economic plan is, to say the least, a wasteful exercise. The only way to make planning effective is to make it scientific and total. This would, amongst other steps, involve nationalization of all foreign companies, of all big Indian enterprises, foreign trade, of technical collaboration agreements, abrogation of patents and so on. These steps would however, demand a drastic change in our socio-economic system. It is doubtful if our academic economists and planners are ready for it.
M P PARAMESWARAN 1 Planning Commission, Second Five Year Plan, 1956, p 515.
Planning Commission, Report of the Enginee}'ing Personnel Commit fee. Eastern Exchange Press, 1956, p 67.