18 SOCIAL SCIENTIST an forest and other reserves of less affluent regions which are difficult to resist because often the latter have few alternative sources of growth. And in any case, the lack of sufficient non-agricultural employment and alternative infrastructure puts unbearable strain on grazing, forest and other common property resources such as water and fuelwood. The emerging trends, outlined earlier, are such" as to intensify all of these, and indeed add a few more negative features. The trend towards agro-business, for example prawn-culture on paddy land, has the potential of severely degrading prime land, as observed in Thailand recently. The general climate of privatisation, and of giving priority to global environmental issues over local ones, through the device of watch-and-ward protection of the Forestry Department type, is likely to make the problem of common property resources even worse. It is clear that the real solution lies in some combination of less rapid population growth and a more rapid, but sustainable rate of agricultural growth. Here the crying need is for greater public investment in rural infrastructure, both physical and human; and for institutional reforms which would allow better combination, both within and across regions, of surplus labour with scarce non-labour resources. This has two requirements. First, that funds be found, by increasing tax^s on the rich, to expand infrastructure (roads, irrigation and electricity and also health, education and family welfare) horizontally at a rapid pace, but with due concern for economic efficiency and ecological consequences. Second, to set out a fresh agenda for the reform of ownership and control over property, while giving greater regional and local autonomy in matters of infra-region allocation of resources. Unfortunately, the liberalisers* priorities are far removed from these. However, whatever the ideal solution or the priorities of those currently making policy, the eventual shape of things to come will depend on the impact that the policies being followed now have on the nature of the political balance in the medium-term future. This is obviously the great unknown about which economists* guesses are unlikely to be more informed than those of others. But certain pointers can be offered. First, it is fairly clear that, although the rural poor will lose, large sections of the rural rich will reap windfall gains because of higher agricultural prices. Second, such gains for rich farmers will, however, be regionally quite differentiated with the gains being larger in regions growing crops, like rice, whose current domestic price is much lower than the world price, and lower or nonexistent in regions growing crops, like oilseeds and sugarcane, whose parity is the other way round. Third, and most importantly, these windfall gains will be accompanied by a cut-back in the flow of resources from the government to rural areas, and, along with this, a