THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT AND THE "KERALA MODEL" 49
The second kind of effect concerns not the empirical situation but the realm of relations. There is a difference between a situation where Kerala has export-oriented agriculture but is part of the overall agrarian economy of India that is not export-oriented, and where both Kerala and India have export-oriented agriculture. In the former situation, Kerala is insulated to a large extent from the vicissitudes of export-orientation, while in the latter situation there is no such insulation either for Kerala or for India. In the former situation, Kerala can draw on the foodstocks of the rest of the country; in the event of an export failure it can obtain rupee resources from the rest of the country to maintain food demand as well. In the latter situation India itself cannot maintain either its food supply or its food demand in the event of an export failure (except in so far as it obtains 'aid'); it can scarcely therefore come to Kerala's rescue in such an eventuality. The maintenance of nutrition levels and social expenditures becomes virtually impossible in a regime of generalised export orientation.
XII
Putting it differently, an important condition, apart from all that has been discussed in the article, for the adoption of a Kerala-type trajectory in any region, is that either the region itself should have an internally-balanced production-structure where it is self-sufficient in basic necessities, or that it is part of a larger region which has this characteristic (together with appropriate arrangements for financial flows). (The third possibility of the region having colonies which make it 'self-sufficient' in a manner of speaking need not be pursued here). The 'structural reforms' upon which the Indian economy is currently embarked not only apotheosise 'supply side' incentives for capitalists, not only entail a rise in the degree of exploitation of the working people through a cut inter alia in their 'social wage' but above all destroy the internal balance of the production-structure, replicating an Africa-type scenario and subverting any prospects of a Kerala-style trajectory. All those who look upon the Kerala trajectory as a worthwhile model for the third world, if they are honest in their conviction, cannot but oppose the implementation of Fund-Bank-dictated economic 'reforms'.