Social Scientist. v 3, no. 29 (Dec 1974) p. 62.


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62 SOCIAL SCIENTIST

Independence opened up possibilites of development of the immense natural resources with the vast manpower available. But results have been too insignificant in relation to the enormous potential. Under the protecting and stimulating role of the state, limited success was recorded in the development of the economy along capitalist lines in the first 10 or 15 years of planning, though the gap between plan and performance has been increasing over the years. The subsequent trend has been one of chronic depression. All efforts to lift the economy out of stagnation are getting frustrated. This restricted manoeuvrability is symptomatic of the worsening crisis. For instance, the inflationary price spiral of the last two years was sought to" be tackled by curtailing money supply and scaling down public expenditure. This measure, in turn, has led to an all-round reduction in the investment outlay in real terms in all interdependent industries, with the consequences of increasing unemployment, falling income and shrinking consumer demand. Thus, the attempt to solve the problem of inflation has led the economy to a graver problem of stagnation.

Anatomy of the Crisis

The crisis is manifesting itself in the forms of stagnation, rising prices, increasing unemployment and aggravation of the distortions in income distribution. For instance, the annual growth rate of real per capita income during the first decade of planning was 1.9 per cent. The corresponding rate for the following decade dropped to 1.3 per cent. It further deteriorated to 1.1 per cent in 1971 "72.As for the price level, it increased at the annual rate of 1.1 percent during the first decade of planning whereas the corresponding increase during the subsequent decade was 6.1 per cent. Since then prices have been shooting up, the annual rate being 10 per cent during 1972-73 and more than 20 per cent during 1973-74. As for employment, contrary to all expectations of the plans, more than 20 million of the labour force remain unemployed today. The number of educated unemployed registered with Employment Exchanges increased from 5.9 lakhs in 1961 to 32.9 lakhs in 1972. As for the total number of job-seekers through Employment Exchanges, the corresponding figures are 11.3 lakhs and 69.0 lakhs.

The average growth of agricultural production has been around 3.2 per cent in the first two plans. The corresponding rate in the following 13 years was only 1.5 per cent despite all claims of breakthrough in agriculture as a result of the so called green revolution. Per capita availability of foodgrains has also declined. The record of the past two years is particularly distressing: there has been actual reduction in agricultural output (1.8 and 5.3 per cent respectively during 1971-72 and 1972-73). In industry too, it is more or less the same story. In the first 15 years of planning, the average annual increase of production was about 8.0 per cent whereas the corresponding rate for 1965-73 was only about 3.0 per cent. The rate of growth was not more than oae per cent during the last six



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