Social Scientist. v 3, no. 30-31 (Jan-Feb 1975) p. 4.


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4 SOCIAL SCIENTIST

difficulties the nation is encountering are not on account of planning, but because of the lack of it. It is because the national targets were topsyturvy, the time horizons were not ever taken seriously, and the coordination of resources was done extremely perfunctorily that we have struck the present bad patch.

At the same time, one has to be realistic. Planning is much more than merely writing an academic essay which explicitly articulates the three attributes referred to above, namely, coordinated use of resources setting a definite time horizon and fixing a set of national targets. The consistency model, featured by these elements must be adhered to in practice, and its impact and ramifications monitored, as well as regulated during the period of the plan. For example, the moment we begin to talk about resuming the plan, we must ensure that resources are raised in the requisite quantum and put to coordinated use, and that the interval within which the targets are to be achieved is kept in mind. Inflation Disrupts Investment Pattern

We will however be stranded right at the first base if the present bout of price rise continues. An annual inflationary rate of 30 per cent or thereabouts will mean that savings, and public savings in particular, will gradually dry up, resources for development will remain woefully short, and the public sector programme of the Plan will be a non-starter. In the private sector too, in case inflation continues to rage unabated, a continuous shift away from productive investment to speculation will take place. Even were high profits to be chalked up in specific activities, there will be little incentive to plough back the emerging surplus into capital expansion : the temptation will be great to divert available resources to ventures with a quick turnover. In the non-farm sectors, there will be an additional reason for investment failing to pick-up. A major characteristic of the price inflation currently .stalking the land is the disproportionate rate of increase in foodgrain and industrial raw material prices;here, the price rise has been much sharper than for industrial manufactures, including machinery and equipment. As a result, the unit cost on account of wages or the procurement of raw materials has increased, either immediately or with a time lag.**Where a corresponding increase in unit price has not been possible—or has not been allowed by the authorities—a shrinkage in returns has taken place. In the private sector (barring agriculture), productive investment is hence being held back for two separate reasons: (a)the relative unattractiveness of such investments compared to outlays on speculative activities; and (b) the relative decline in the generation of surplus in a number of activities.

Whatever programme is drawn up for resuscitating the growth process should therefore consist of two distinct parts, namely, a programme of stabilization and a programme of development. The objective of the stabilization programme will be to cut back drastically the rate of inflation. According to one argument, the surest prescription for curing



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