24 SOCIAL SCIENTIST can be raised against this exercise; but other exercises give similar results. If we compare three year averages centred around a peak agricultural year, we find that the growth rate of agricultural production over 1952-55 to 1959-62 was 3.0 per cent, while for 1959-62 to 1969-72 it was 2 to 4 per cent.6 For foodgrains alone, extrapolation from a semi-log trend fitted to data in terms of million tons over 1947-48 to 1964-65, shows likewise that all subsequent years apart from 1970-71 experienced levels of production well below the corresponding trend values. The three year average comparison gives a slightly stronger result: the growth rate over 1959-62 to 1969-72 was marginally lower at 2.7 per cent compared to the rate for 1952-55 to 1959-62 (2.8 per cent). Recalling the fact that it is now officially admitted that 1970-71 foodgrain output level was exceptionally high owing to fortuitous factors,7 we can affirm that, whatever be the precise dating of the deceleration, there has been sucli a deceleration in agricultural production generally, and arguably even in foodgrain production in recent years,, even when the 1972-73 and subsequent year's output figures are left completely out of account. It would follow then that if other things remained file same, the economy should have experienced a faster rate of inflation over any agricultural cycle in the seventies than over a corresponding cycle earlier; further in so far as 1972-73 represented an unusually sharp drop in production, the rate of inflation should obviously have been faster. The oflkial explanation therefore appears to have strong support, stronger even than what is claimed for it by its advocates who do not sufficiently emphasize the fact of growth rate deceleration.8 Public Spending But the crucial question is: have other things remained the same, has demand continued to grow as before ? In particular, what can we say about the pressure of demand during and since 1972-73 ? It is well known that since 1965 the rate of industrial growth has slowed down considerably more markedly in fact than the rate of agricultural growth: while over 1951-65 a semi-log trend fitted to the indices of industrial production gives a trend growth rate of over 7 per cent, only in one subsequent year has the point growth rate exceeded tills level. Besides, this deceleration has shown itself especially clearly in case of the agro-based industries. Thus the demand for agricultural products originating from industrial expansion has not grown so far out of step with agricultural growth as to explain this rapid inflation; this is also true for the period after 1972-73.9 Any expansion in demand therefore must be attributed to the demand emanating from the non-industrial sector, for example war expenditure, public works projects and so on. To assess the importance of these we have to look at the government budget; indeed the official explanation emphasizes the role of persistent budget deficits. It should be noted however that it is not the deficit as such but the overall level of public spending releative to agricultural, especially foodgrain,,