ECONOMIC RECOVERY AFTER FINANCIAL CRASH 63
policy, curb state support of the investment and scientific and technological progress, induced under pressure of International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as forecasting of main macroeconomic indicators on the basis of extrapolation of existing trends, are conducive to further deepening of the depression. On the contrary, measures needed to overcome the depression - substantial increase of the innovation and investment activities, stimulating final demand, improving financial position of industrial enterprises, creating favourable macroeconomic conditions for economic growth - haven't been implemented yet. Furthermore, official forecasts don't take into account the regulation of modern economic development and scientific and technological progress, analysis of competitive advantages of Russian economy and prospects of their implementation. Anticipated changes in tax system, effecting mutual settlements between enterprises, establishment of Bank for Development are insufficient for overcoming the crisis.
According to current estimates, in order to turn the economy to the path of sustainable economic growth, in middle term it will be necessary to ensure at least fourfold increase of volume of investment to renewal of fixed assets. Should the rate of growth in investment activity be slower, the extent of disposed production capacities will exceed the volume of input capacities, and that will predetermine the continuing contraction of production potential. Considering huge inertia of depression trends, substantial initial impulse is needed in order to get the economy growing - rapid increase in investment and innovation activity at the annual rate up to 30 percent. To achieve that, there must be full utilization of existing domestic resources. The most important among the latter are:
- non-functioning production capacities (about 60 percent of industrial capacities) and compellingly unemployed qualified specialists and workers (totaling, with inclusion of partly unemployed, more than 15 million people);
- export capabilities of state enterprises (first of all, related to export of gas, nuclear fuel, electricity, investment equipment and military machinery);
- state-controlled natural monopolies;
- natural resources vested with the state;
- monetary emission within the boundaries of foreign currency and monetary surrogates substitution, and economic growth. Objective requirement for increase in monetary supply is very significant, when considering ten-fold contraction of monetary supply