62 §6ctAt SCIENTIST
over the period ^l-'CS while that of the investment goods sector rose sharply with the raw materials and intermediates maintaining a a stable proportion of 35-40%. The investment goods, raw materials and the intermediates fared better than the consumer goods sector in terms of average annual rate of growth.
In the subsequent analysis, the author proceeds to relate the observed changes in the growth and structure of the industrial sector with the process of import substitution. Before presenting the actual statistecal measures, the author takes care to discuss the various theoretical and empirical problems for alternative measures of import substitution. It is shown that while the direction of change will remain the same, irrespective of the method used, the magnitude and hence the ranking of the different industries according to the extent of import substitution can vary with different measures. The ranking is also sensitive to the method of aggregation used, and the aggregative results presented in chapter 6, illustrate this point rather tellingly.
In chapters 3, 4 and 5 the process of import substitution is studied with respect to two broad catagories, namely, (i) consumer goods and (ii) raw materials, intermediates and investment goods. In all, 169 items have been covered in these chapters ; and the concept of import substitution used is the ratio of imports to total supplies, both measured in physical units. On the basis of the individual industry results of chapter 3, 4 and 5, the author concludes that import substitution was carried out to the maximum extent in the consumer goods sector. The ^consumer goods' category, as defined in these chapters does not include the traditional items such as cotton and wollen textiles, vegetable oils, tobacco, tea, coffee etc. in which the process of import substitution was completed even before the period under consideration.
The above conclusion, therefore, applies to only non-traditional new consumption items. As for raw materials, the overall dependence on imported materials and components increased rapidly. This was quite expected in view of the growing demand for raw materials generated as a consequence of industrialisation. Besides, there are some areas such as non-ferrous metals where import substitution could not be possible because of natural reasons. In the capital goods sector, the import substitution programme seems to have been mainly confined to minor machinery items without much of an impact on the rest of the sector.
These findings are in apparant contradiction to those presented in chapter 6 according to which for the entire decade ^l-'Gl the investment goods sector seemed to have predominance. This is particularly so during the period 1957^63 when the emphasis shifted to heavy industries. The apparent contradiction is resolved when it is noted that the analysis in chapter 6 takes into account the traditional industries in which import substitution was almost completed even before 1951,