94 SOCIAL SCIENTIST
increased since the 1950s,, but relative to population growth cloth consumption has stagnated. In fact per capita consumption in quantitative terms has declined since the mid-sixties.
However, per capita consumption of cloth can be expected to rise in response to increases in per capita income only if factors like prices and distribution of income as between various classes of population do not change significantly, for such factors also would affect the consumption of cloth. It is well known that a shift has taken place in the terms of trade between agriculture and industry since the early sixties in favour of the former. This is reflected in a sharp rise in the price of food (foodgrains in particular) both in absolute terms as well as relatively to other commodities, resulting in a fall in the real incomes of the poorer sections. Since a larger proportion of their incomes is spent on food, unless they reduce absolute consumption of food, a smaller proportion of the incomes remain for the purchase of other commodities like cloth. On the other hand there would be certain groups such as big farmers (who sell a large proportion of their output) who would benefit from the shift in the terms of trade, and an increase in their demand for cotton cloth may well compensate for the decline in the demand of the lower and middle strata. But again, the nature of their demand is very different. They do not increase consumption of inferior varieties which lower income groups generally use, since with an increase in per capita incomes a shift takes place towards finer cotton and synthetic-fibre fabrics. In fact, over the past decade there has been a significant change in the composition of cloth available. This is reflected in (a) a production shift in favour of finer varieties both in the mill and decentralized sectors and (b) a rapid growth in the availability of non-cotton fabrics, especially the non-cellulosic synthetic fibre-based, which have provided a whole range of substitutes for cotton cloth. These changes are likely to have affected the per capita consumption not only of cotton but of all textiles
An attempt is made in this article to analyze the trends in the consumption of cotton cloth and non-cotton cloth in the post-independence period and to offer some explanatory hypotheses within the broad frame outlined. The first section deals with trends in per capita consumption (in metres) especially since the sbcties and the significant changes in the composition of textiles. An estimate is constructed of per capita consumption of cloth reflecting as far as possible the heterogeneity of the product and its changing contents to see how it differs from the estimate in terms of linear metres. For making the analysis meaningful, it is essential to take into consideration also the significant differences in the patterns and levels of consumption that exist as between the various sections of the population. There are wide disparities in household incomes, and the pattern of consumption that results is a highly skewed one not only in terms of quantity but also the type of cloth. The second section deals