PRABHA T PA TMA1K S K RAO
19^-76: Beginning of the End of Stagnation?
THE IMPRESSIVE UPSURGE during 1975-76 has led many to believe that the economy has turned the corner. No doubt the economic performance of the year has been remarkable in terms of price stability and agricultural and industrial output. However, it is too early to say that the economy is poised for sustained growth. This article makes the point that there is nothing to show that the causes of long-run stagnation of the last few years have been overcome in any way. In fact available indicators already reveal a slowdown of growth in the present year. Policies announced by the government so far are not such as would capitalize on the upsurge of 1975-76 to usher in a period of sustained growth.
Real national income increased by more than 5.5 per cent1 in 1975-76 compared to an average annual compound growth rate of 1.9 per cent for the preceding quinquennium. Total agricultural output increased by 8.0 per cent of which foodgrains went up by 16 to 17 per cent, from about 101 million tonnes in 1974-75 to about 118 million tonnes in 1975-76. The rise in industrial output between March 1975 and March 1976 was as much as 10.9 per cent., compared to about 2.5 per cent over the preceding twelve-month period. All these increases took place while prices were apparently stable and foreign exchange reserves rising.