162 SOCIAL SCIENTIST Obviously, the demand tor capital goods would very much depend on the needs of replacement and expansion in the consumer goods industries. But the situation in the consumer goods industry is far from encouraging. The output of some of the mass consumer goods like textiles and tea registered a decline during July 1975 to March 1976. The decline has been steeper in consumer durables like cars.sewing machines, radios, airconditioners, refrigerators and so on which were somewhat buoyant in the earlier years. Vanaspati is the only mass consumer product which recorded a substantial increase in production during this period. Amongst the consumer durables, the increase in the production of scooters is the only one worth mentioning. The rest of the increases are mainly in intermediate goods and services like aluminium, copper, zinc, machine tools, cement, power, sheet glass, nitrogenous fertilizers, and coal.4 Is it possible to revive the demand without a significant increase in the disposable income of the masses of the farmers, industrial workers and salaried employees? Recent measures to curb wages, impound allowances and curtail bonus seem to have reduced the disposable income of the masses of the wage earners and salaried employees by about Rs 1000 crores.* Employment in the organized industrial sector seems to have stagnated if not declined. There is no visible evidence of improvement of the economic conditions of the middle and poor peasants, tenants and agricultural workers despite two good harvests and the emphasis given in the 20-point programme. Increased demand for fertilizers would very much depend on how far middle and poor peasants are enabled to use it with advantage. Continuous hike in the price of petrol can only be expected to curb the demand for cars though the substitution effect might increase the demand for scooters. Scaling down of the marginal rates of income tax has not led to any ostensible revival of demand for consumer durables. As noted earlier, some of the industries producing intermediate and capital goods have accumulated surpluses of finished goods. It stands to reason that these industries will not be able to sustain or expand production in the face of continuous depression of consumer demand. How then are we going to sustain the seven per cent increase in industrial production through the fifth plan period? Do we expect that exports would take care of the sagging domestic demand? eHospitable Climate9 When industrial situation in India is so uncertain and depressing, the leading industrialists in India and abroad as well as some of aid-giving international agencies have had no hesitation in acclaiming the performance of the Indian economy as very impressive. These are well-informed people who can easily distinguish between a long-term trend and a short-run upswing of a weather cycle. They cannot also be oblivious of the structural factors behind the recessionary tendencies afflicting the Indian economy. Why then are they so jubilant? Are they