170 SOCIAL SCIENTIST For instance., sugar exports which earned about Rs 400 crores of foreign exchange in 1975-76 is not expected to fetch in anything more than Rs 100 crores in 1976-77.2® Any recessionary trend in the western markets would also cause considerable difficulties for Indian exports. Sustaining world demand for Indian products would therefore be difficult. The new markets found in the OPEC countries may also prove to be transitory. In any case., the sagging domestic demand cannot be easily offset by expanding exports. Reliance on export as a stimulus to industrial development in India is like building a house on quicksand. Healing the Sick It is obvious that the current rate of increase in exports has been found inadequate to stem the spreading sickness in Indian industries. Despite the current efforts to promote exports, the volume of jute manufactures exported has declined from about 950,000 tonnes in 1951-52 to about 938,000 tonnes in 1974-75. More than 12 out of a total of 67 jute mills remain closed. The millowners are resorting to lockout under the slightest provocation. There were already about 100 sick mills in the cotton textile industry. Twenty-two more were added to the sick list in the first ten months of 1976. In October alone 8 units were closed. More units are falling sick with every passing month. The National Textile Corporation to which these mills were entrusted has incurred a loss of about Rs 2.5 crores from April to October 1976. It is feared that merger of sick units with healthier ones might drain the blood of the healthy without curing the sick. More disturbing is the news that about Rs 1000 crores advanced by banks and other financial institutions may become bad debt. Government might also lose heavily on account of tax dues, power charges and the like. Meanwhile, sickness seems to be spreading to tea gardens, engineering units, sugar plants and so on. The accumulation of finished goods inventory is a sign of indigestion in the case of several industries. An ^Operation Revival5 has been initiated by the Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI) to bale out some of these ailing units. It is too early to say whether the modernization efforts of the IDBI would restore these industries to normal health. Blood transfusion and artificial respiration are emergency aids. Wide use of such methods only speaks of the spreading sickness. Normalcy would depend on a healthy appetite and the ability of the system to digest the intake of a balanced diet. Such a development calls for rectification of the structural imbalances of the agricultural and industrial sectors; stimulus to small and household industries; intensified resource mobilization from those who have the ability to pay; capture of the black money hoards and a considerable stepping up of public investment and the restoration of the purchasing power of the masses of the consumers. Are we in a position to reverse the gear in terms of strategies and policies and restore the Indian industries to the road of sustained development?