26 SOCIAL SCIENTIST productivity. But it is not clear whether this is part of a long-term strategy which recognizes the need for eventual transition to a level of higher productivity.5 The draft admits that though a shift in the distribution of the work force away from agriculture is desirable, it is not likely to materialize in India in the near future. The point is what would be our long-term perspective. The approach of the rolling plan rules out consideration of such questions* Market Imbalance The draft explains in the chapter on industry and minerals that industrial growth is being limited by the narrowness of the domestic market. The big increase in investment that is proposed in employment-intensive activities like agriculture is expected to stimulate demand for a wide range of mass consumer, intermediate and capital goods. Recent experiences, however, shaw that there is no straightforward relation between investment in agriculture, or agricultural growth, and demand for mass consumer goods. This is evident from the decline in the production of cotton textiles notwithstanding the growth registered] in agricultural production over a number of years. While some increase in the demand for fertilizer and other chemicals and mechanical equipment accompanied the growth in agriculture, it did not prove sufficient for the revival of a stagnant industrial sector. It is now acknowledged that the fruits of development were garnered by the richer section of the peasantry and the poor did not gain. As long as the institutional structure in the rural areas remains intact, devious routes will be found by the rich to usurp the allocation meant for the poor. The income earned by the rich may not necessarily provide adequate demand for industrial goods. Nayyar found that an increase in food prices was accompanied by a decline in the proportion of expenditure on industrial goods to total expenditure after 1965.6 A rough calculation from the national accounts statistics showed that the proportion fell from 23.1 percent in 1965-67 to 19.3 percent in 1974-75. The demand from the rich provides only a narrow base for industrial goods in India. The demand for mass consumer goods by the poor can lead to a revival of industries. It remains to be seen to what extent the intentions expressed in the draft to raise the level of income of the poor in the countryside are translated into reality. For, similar expressions in the preceding plan documents did not affect the prevailing conditions in the countryside.